thegreglowe.com

By GREG LOWE
IN BANGKOK

THAILAND’S economy contracted for the first time in a decade when growth in the fourth quarter of last year plummeted to -4.3 per cent. And this year’s GDP growth is likely to drop to -1 per cent, the National Economic and Social Development Board (Nesdb) said yesterday.

Slumping demand in key export markets, domestic political turmoil and declining tourist revenues caused quarterly economic growth to turn negative for the first time since 1999. GDP fell to -4.3 per cent in Q408, or 2.2 trillion baht (S$94 billion), down from 3.9 per cent in the previous quarter, according to Nesdb’s quarterly economic growth review published yesterday. [Read more →]

By GREG LOWE
IN BANGKOK

BANGKOK’S residential property prices will fall by 10 per cent this year, while resort area transactions have ground to a halt, but domestic political turmoil may have prevented a market crash, experts say.

Foreign buyers, who account for around 30 per cent of Bangkok’s condominium market, continue to evaporate, leading developers to cut prices as luxury sector transactions stall. But prices will not implode by the same extent as in Singapore and Hong Kong. [Read more →]

By GREG LOWE
IN BANGKOK

THAILAND’S electrical and electronics industry – the country’s biggest exporter – will suffer a big drop in export sales this year, costing up to 100,000 jobs, analysts say.

Total electrical and electronics exports will drop 10 per cent to about US$45 billion, according to Sasipen Bhurapanich, an analyst at Kasikorn Research Centre. [Read more →]

By GREG LOWE
IN BANGKOK

THAILAND will extend a lifeline to small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) and export-related businesses through an eight billion baht (S$347 million) loan insurance scheme.

Industry and economists have welcomed the anti-recession initiative but say more must be done to boost productivity and win support from commercial banks. [Read more →]

The global recession and the fallout from last year’s astronomic oil prices have forced the Scandinavian national carrier SAS to restructure, shedding some 3,000 staff from its payroll.

Despite the cutbacks, the company maintains its commitment to making air travel greener and has no plans to downsize locally, says Bangkok-based Hakan Olsson, the company’s director and general manager for Southeast Asia. [Read more →]

By GREG LOWE
IN BANGKOK

PLUMMETING exports saw traffic through Thailand’s prime cargo port continue to decline last month, painting a dim picture for the country’s shipping industry this year. Experts warn that cargo volumes may decline by up to 25 per cent this quarter and 10 per cent over the year.

Laem Chabang deep sea port saw its traffic volume drop by 27 per cent year-on-year in January, following December’s 20 per cent contraction, the port’s first negative growth in its 18-year history. [Read more →]

Thailand’s Eastern Seaboard (ESB) zone’s fundamentals are strong enough to weather the global recession and to maintain its position as a regional hub for manufacturing, petrochemical and export-based industries, according to industry experts.

They say its solid infrastructure, logistical facilities and utilities, underpinned by highly competitive Board of Investment (BOI) privileges and a relatively cheap, well-skilled workforce, will continue to attract foreign businesses investing in Asia. [Read more →]

By GREG LOWE
IN BANGKOK

DOMESTIC political unrest dealt a severe blow to Thai business sentiment, driving it to an all-time low last month, recent reports reveal.

Surveys published in January show local confidence is eroding faster than in other regional markets. And the Industries Sentiment Index plunged to 62.9 per cent in December – its lowest point since the Federation of Thai Industries introduced the survey to monitor manufacturers’ outlook in 2003. [Read more →]

By GREG LOWE
IN BANGKOK

THAI banks face a deteriorating outlook for this year, despite having shown resilience against the effects of the global slowdown last year, but the worst is yet to come, according to analysts.

Lower provisioning and higher loans growth saw Thailand’s banking system report higher average return on assets (ROA) of 1.1 per cent last year, compared with 0.3 per cent in 2007, while its non-performing loan (NPL) ratio dropped to 7 per cent from 9 per cent, said Fitch Ratings. [Read more →]

By GREG LOWE
IN BANGKOK

THAILAND’S domestic auto sales are expected to plunge another 15.4 per cent this year, says the country’s biggest car maker. But industry observers reckon the decline could be worse.

While the country’s economic fundamentals remain sound and its low-car ownership rate offers strong sales opportunities, the effects of the global downturn will cause the market to shrink in 2009, says Toyota Motor Thailand. [Read more →]