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	<description>news, analysis, lifestyle &#38; travel from thailand and southeast asia</description>
	<pubDate>Wed, 21 Jul 2010 16:51:56 +0000</pubDate>
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			<item>
		<title>Thai oil palm industry sets standard</title>
		<link>http://thegreglowe.com/archives/378</link>
		<comments>http://thegreglowe.com/archives/378#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Jul 2010 16:50:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>greg lowe</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Bangkok Post]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Thailand]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[business]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Thailand&#8217;s oil palm industry is leading the way for regional biopower projects and is more sustainable than operations in Indonesia and Malaysia which have faced global pressure for devastating old-growth forest and taking a wrecking ball to farming communities, experts say.
But while the local sector is breaking ground with its renewable energy projects, inefficiency, drought [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thailand&#8217;s oil palm industry is leading the way for regional biopower projects and is more sustainable than operations in Indonesia and Malaysia which have faced global pressure for devastating old-growth forest and taking a wrecking ball to farming communities, experts say.</p>
<p>But while the local sector is breaking ground with its renewable energy projects, inefficiency, drought and poor farming methods are dragging on output. <a href="http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/economics/186784/thai-oil-palm-industry-sets-standard">Read more&#8230;</a></p>
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		<item>
		<title>Shangri-La Dialogue Highlights Challenges for Asian Regional Security</title>
		<link>http://thegreglowe.com/archives/376</link>
		<comments>http://thegreglowe.com/archives/376#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Jun 2010 14:17:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>greg lowe</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Asia-Pacific]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[World Politics Review]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[military]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[security]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thegreglowe.com/?p=376</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
By Greg Lowe
Asia-Pacific nations must renew their efforts to form a coherent and collaborative response to the region&#8217;s complex security risks and its inherent potential for instability, senior delegates at a high-level regional forum say.
Food and energy security, ethnic conflicts, insurgencies and rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula were key issues discussed at the 9th [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignright" src="http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/images/CommentaryNews/Gates_MyungBak.png" alt="" width="200" height="200" /></p>
<p>By Greg Lowe</p>
<p>Asia-Pacific nations must renew their efforts to form a coherent and collaborative response to the region&#8217;s complex security risks and its inherent potential for instability, senior delegates at a high-level regional forum say.</p>
<p>Food and energy security, ethnic conflicts, insurgencies and rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula were key issues discussed at the 9th International Institute for Strategic Studies Shangri-La Dialogue held in Singapore last weekend. Some 320 delegates from 28 nations &#8212; including defense ministers, military and intelligence chiefs, and prominent figures from the private sector &#8212; attended the summit. <a href="http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/5739/shangri-la-dialogue-highlights-challenges-for-asian-regional-security">Read more&#8230;</a></p>
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		<title>Thai businesses count the cost - Impact on local tourism seen to be severe if political instability continues</title>
		<link>http://thegreglowe.com/archives/374</link>
		<comments>http://thegreglowe.com/archives/374#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 May 2010 10:40:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>greg lowe</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Thailand]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[The Business Times (Singapore)]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[UDD]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[business]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[news]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[red shirts]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thegreglowe.com/?p=374</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By GREG LOWE
IN BANGKOK
BUSINESSES that have been hit hard by months of protests and deadly clashes on the capital&#8217;s streets say that it is too early to assess the full impact of the recent violence on their operations.
Protesters rampaged across Bangkok on Wednesday, torching more than 30 buildings, after leaders of the red-shirt United Front [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>By GREG LOWE<br />
IN BANGKOK</p>
<p>BUSINESSES that have been hit hard by months of protests and deadly clashes on the capital&#8217;s streets say that it is too early to assess the full impact of the recent violence on their operations.</p>
<p>Protesters rampaged across Bangkok on Wednesday, torching more than 30 buildings, after leaders of the red-shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship surrendered to police, ending more than two months of anti-government rallies in the city.<span id="more-374"></span></p>
<p>Parts of the CentralWorld shopping mall collapsed after a fire started by protesters raged for more than 10 hours. The extent of the damage to Asia&#8217;s second-largest shopping centre was not yet known, a spokesman for operator Central Pattana said yesterday. But the adjoining Zen department store was completely gutted by the inferno. &#8216;The damage caused by the fire needs to be carefully inspected in detail by concerned authorities and also for security reasons,&#8217; the company said.</p>
<p>The impact on local tourism, a bedrock of the Thai economy, will be severe if political instability continues. Clashes between security forces and protesters in the past two months have left more than 80 people dead and more than 1,300 injured.</p>
<p>&#8216;All our inbound clients are being relocated out of Bangkok, we are seeing many cancellations,&#8217; said Michael Lynden-Bell, general manager of Exotissimo Travel Thailand, a destination management company. &#8216;Our prime concern is the safety of our clients and staff.&#8217;</p>
<p>During one of the recent firefights, a bullet shattered a window at the company&#8217;s office, located on the Silom-Rama IV intersection, which has been closed since last Thursday.</p>
<p>Fears that Wednesday&#8217;s unrest could spread to other parts of the country were a significant concern, but Mr Lynden-Bell said that he was optimistic that Thailand would eventually bounce back. &#8216;Though I think business will be very slow until the peak season in November/December,&#8217; he said.</p>
<p>While the situation in Bangkok has calmed since Wednesday, the government must act swiftly to ensure that the peace is sustainable.</p>
<p>&#8216;The only action we can take now is to be on the defensive and try to cut costs and wait for the tide to pass,&#8217; said a Singaporean business owner, whose firm services the commercial and factory property sector. &#8216;If the current situation does not improve, we are expecting a fall in sales revenue of up to 40 per cent in 2010.&#8217;</p>
<p>While the central bank has ordered a bank holiday, some establishments have already taken a hit. A spokeswoman for UOB (Thai) said that business had declined significantly with most customers taking a wait-and-see approach to the situation, which was too volatile to predict.</p>
<p>&#8216;Effort must be made to regain investor confidence,&#8217; she said. &#8216;Overall, we believe that the well-diversified Thai economy is a resilient one, and business opportunities remain favourable in the long-run.&#8217;</p>
<p>Tan Yhi Hua, a Singaporean executive at HRG, a corporate travel agency, echoed these views, saying that Thailand has recovered from other political upheavals including the 2008 airport blockade by yellow-shirt protesters from the People&#8217;s Alliance for Democracy.</p>
<p>&#8216;This recovery for Thailand may be faster than expected because all companies are geared towards to quickly overcoming the business they lost during recent weeks,&#8217; she said.</p>
<p>The unrest has delayed fund-raising plans and continued to erode investor sentiment, however, said Panaikorn Chartikavanij, a partner at local venture fund Lakeshore Capital.</p>
<p>&#8216;Foreign investors are questioning the stability of Thailand as an investment destination,&#8217; he said. &#8216;However, investors with a three to five-year horizon are likely to be less concerned.</p>
<p>&#8216;While the frustration from the general public and business community on how the government is handling the situation is completely valid, we also have to understand its constraints and the context of the situation.</p>
<p>&#8216;In my opinion, the prime minister has demonstrated extraordinary tolerance and shown restraint in handling the red-shirt protesters to avoid casualties. Casualties are inevitable given the guerrilla tactics of a small group of protesters. It is unfortunate, but the rule of law must be upheld to avoid Thailand slipping further into anarchy.&#8217;</p>
<p>Published May 21, 2010<br />
© The Business Times</p>
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		<item>
		<title>Reporting safely in Bangkok</title>
		<link>http://thegreglowe.com/archives/370</link>
		<comments>http://thegreglowe.com/archives/370#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 14 May 2010 15:07:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>greg lowe</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Greg's Blog]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Thailand]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thegreglowe.com/?p=370</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Armed clashes between security forces and anti-government protesters in Bangkok left 16 people dead and more than 100 injured, including three journalists.
This timely safety advice for reporters working in this increasingly dangerous city is based on consultation with a local security expert.
1. Consider if you really need to put yourself in the fire-zone for your [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Armed clashes between security forces and anti-government protesters in Bangkok left 16 people dead and more than 100 injured, including three journalists.</p>
<p>This timely safety advice for reporters working in this increasingly dangerous city is based on consultation with a local security expert.</p>
<p>1. Consider if you really need to put yourself in the fire-zone for your story. Really do this, there are a lot of people running around covering the issue but without any commissions to actually get paid for it. So ask yourself again and again if you are being wise risking death or serious injury without actually being paid to cover the event for a news organisation.  Remember a lot of the soldiers are young, inexperienced, hot, tired and scared. After 12 hours on the streets they may not be able to make very sound judgments in a confilict situation.  </p>
<p>2. Wear light clothes, e.g. white top, light brown trousers. Avoid wearing black which is intimidating, especially when the UDD guards wear black and there have been incidents of men-in-black with AK47s shooting at soldiers. Don&#8217;t make yourself anymore of a target.</p>
<p>3. Carry first-aid kit, spare mobile batteries. Wear Kevlar if you have it. Under a top is better as you look less official. Bicycle helmets are good for head protection as they are thick and shrapnel will have further to travel through it.</p>
<p>4. If you hear a blast TURN AWAY FROM IT crouch with your back to it cover your head and stay that way for several seconds. Shrapnel can travel for hundreds of metres. If you can take cover do so, but be aware that secondary bombs are often placed at the most obvious cover.</p>
<p>5. Keep to the footpaths. Avoid open places and shops with plate glass windows.</p>
<p>6. If there is gunfire take cover and observe where the line of fire is travelling. E.g., is it random, sniper fire, travelling towards you (in which case you could be the target), or near to a person who is.</p>
<p>7. You have more safety in crowds. They absorb blasts and shrapnel.</p>
<p>8. If you see something happening, people shooting, etc., and want to take a look, be sure to look behind first otherwise you may inadvertently put yourself in the line of fire of someone who is behind you.</p>
<p>9. Do as much as you can to make yourself look neutral. Wear a flower. Make a point of smiling at the soldiers, protesters, etc.</p>
<p>10. If a hand grenade lands near you (which is possible) they normally have a 3-5 second fuse. Throw yourself on the ground face-down with the soles of your feet pointing towards the blast. Wear shoes with thick soles as these will prevent the shrapnel from traveling too far up your legs. Tuck in your chin, stick your fingers in your ears and open your mouth – this will help prevent your eardrums from bursting. Wear a small rucksack. Stick a few A4 pads in it. This will help stop shrapnel.</p>
<p>11. Avoid wearing jewellery. If you’re near a blast, it gets turned into shrapnel and gets embedded in you.</p>
<p>Again. These comments are to help give you some safety guidance if you HAVE to go and report on the situation. They are not guranateed to help you. Do not for an instance believe that by simply reading and acting on this list you will be safe. The situation is highly volatile and it has been proven to be deadly for too many people already. Question everything you are doing, especially the most important point – why am I putting myself at risk right now?</p>
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		<title>BLOG: Political unrest and that Thai economy</title>
		<link>http://thegreglowe.com/archives/364</link>
		<comments>http://thegreglowe.com/archives/364#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 14 May 2010 03:07:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>greg lowe</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Greg's Blog]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Much is made of Thailand&#8217;s economic fundamentals but the fact remains that the current political turmoil will only dampen economic activity, chase away tourists and investors and weaken the country&#8217;s overall performance. 
Here are a few comments on the likely impact on the economy, these have all been made very recently, but not in response [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Much is made of Thailand&#8217;s economic fundamentals but the fact remains that the current political turmoil will only dampen economic activity, chase away tourists and investors and weaken the country&#8217;s overall performance. </p>
<p>Here are a few comments on the likely impact on the economy, these have all been made very recently, but not in response to last night&#8217;s clashes and the shooting of Seh Daeng. <span id="more-364"></span></p>
<p>Scott Campbell, an  MBMG Group-affiliated portfolio manager and managing director of  award-winning MitonOptimal Guernsey, recently told me during his Bangkok visit that the currency markets show country risk has already  affected Thailand&#8217;s performance and recovery over the past year or so.</p>
<p>Despite popular claims from local business chiefs and  exporters to the contrary, Thailand&#8217;s &#8220;strong&#8221; baht has actually  underperformed the region&#8217;s other currencies by about 10%. &#8220;That is  almost entirely down to the local political situation,&#8221; he said.</p>
<p>Country risk has also weighed significantly on Thailand&#8217;s gross dometic product when compared with competing Southeast Asian economies. &#8221;If you take the superior GDP growth rate of a  jurisdiction like the Philippines and apply this higher rate to  Thailand&#8217;s growth from 2005, it can be seen that by the end of 2008  Thailand&#8217;s GDP would be somewhere between US$30 billion and $40 billion  higher than now,&#8221; he said.</p>
<p>Prolonged protests have dented consumer confidence, turning consumers away from retail outlets as the slowdown in tourism harms employment and incomes. Exports and industrial production, as well as the more obvious private consumption and tourism, have been affected by the red-shirt rally at Ratchaprasong intersection, said Matthew Circosta, an economist at Sydney-based Moody&#8217;s Analytics.</p>
<p>&#8220;Indeed, absent political troubles, the economy&#8217;s growth fundamentals are still strong,&#8221; he said. &#8220;The accelerating Chinese economy is boosting demand for Thailand&#8217;s suite of manufactured goods, while robust regional demand and higher commodity prices are driving a surge in agricultural exports. The troubled domestic environment has yet to harm industrial production, which continues to accelerate as manufacturers ramp up production to cash in on rising business orders amid strong external demand.&#8221;</p>
<p>&#8220;Nevertheless, if the political turmoil continues, it will take a toll on production, while consumer spending could decelerate sharply. As a result, accommodative monetary policy settings will remain in place as the deteriorating political environment clouds the economic outlook and suggests the Thai expansion is not firmly entrenched.&#8221;</p>
<p>&#8220;If, and, when the protests end, the Thai economy should resume expanding, underpinned by recovering global demand, which should propel overseas shipments and production. A strong labour market, higher farm incomes, and rising business sentiment and capacity utilization should boost consumption and investment. Stronger domestic demand is needed to put the Thai recovery on a more sustainable path, and resolving the political uncertainty will help in that regard.&#8221;</p>
<p>Steve Vickers, president and CEO of Hong Kong-based FTI-International Risk, said more violence is likely and offered a pessimistic view of how the political impasse will drag on the economy. &#8220;Foreign investors will need a very long term investment horizon if they are to become involved in the  Thai market at this time,&#8221; he said. &#8220;Others, who are already committed, should consider inventory levels and contingency planning in the event of  disturbance to their supply chain in the medium term.&#8221;</p>
<p>Last week, Phatra Securities said in a research note that Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva&#8217;s road map for national reconcilliation has a 50/50 chance of success.</p>
<p>After last night&#8217;s clashes the chances of its offering a resolution have been weakended further unless the red-shirts decide to pack up and go home.</p>
<p>If the road map gets a second chance, it will still face three challenges as Phatra pointed out.</p>
<p>&#8220;First,  offering to dissolve parliament in September may not be giving away much  given that the Constitution  Court could rule to dissolve the Democrat  party (forcing Abhisit out of office) before then as recommended by the  Election Commission. Second, the government has accused the red shirts and  their supporters of harboring terrorists and, more seriously, have  fast-tracked an investigation on whether they have attempted to  undermine the monarchy. Both are serious criminal offences that cannot  be pardoned. Third, the promise of constitution reform is vague given  the fact that the same promise was made in April 2009.&#8221;</p>
<p>However, some analysts are fairly positive that toe country with muddle through the current mess, Thai-style.</p>
<p>&#8220;Political turbulence is status quo for Thailand &#8212; it does not have a major impact on neighbours, several of which &#8212; Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia &#8212; are more dysfunctional than Thailand anyway,&#8221; said MAtthew Gertken, East Asia analyst at STRATFOR Intelligence. &#8220;Thailand&#8217;s tumultuous politics is therefore self-contained. It arises mainly from the cyclical clashes between the traditional pillars of power &#8212; the military, monarchy, Bangkok bureaucracy &#8212; and major forces of change, such as the business class emerging from globalization and the tide of political populism supported by the North and Northeastern provinces.</p>
<p>&#8220;Thailand has gone through periods of social and political unrest numerous times in modern history, including the early 1970s and early 1990s, and has seen 18 military coups since 1932, but nevertheless has proved remarkably resilient over the long run, due to its well established civil institutions and economic advantages rooted in geographic location.</p>
<p>&#8220;However, instability looks likely to continue and even intensify in the short to medium term because of the &#8230; [poor health] &#8230; of the widely admired Thai King Bhumibol Adulyadej &#8230; [whose passing] threatens to weaken the monarchy as an institution that promotes social stability and national unity. Add to this the fact that a generation of army chiefs is retiring, leading to divisions within the army, the one institution that has repeatedly seized power when the country appeared to be spinning out of control. In the last half century Thailand has managed to find some accommodation to contain political instability within relatively brief periods of time and limit it to the surface, without letting foundations be overturned.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>Thailand&#8217;s Red Shirts accept Abhisit&#8217;s reconciliation road map</title>
		<link>http://thegreglowe.com/archives/362</link>
		<comments>http://thegreglowe.com/archives/362#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 11 May 2010 12:59:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>greg lowe</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Thailand]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[UDD]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[World Politics Review]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[by Greg Lowe
BANGKOK &#8212; Red Shirt anti-government protesters have conditionally accepted Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva&#8217;s roadmap for national reconciliation in a move that is expected to end the rallies that have paralyzed parts of the capital for months.
Opinions are mixed over whether the plan can bring lasting peace to a country whose unity has become [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>by Greg Lowe</p>
<p>BANGKOK &#8212; Red Shirt anti-government protesters have conditionally accepted Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva&#8217;s roadmap for national reconciliation in a move that is expected to end the rallies that have paralyzed parts of the capital for months.</p>
<p>Opinions are mixed over whether the plan can bring lasting peace to a country whose unity has become increasingly fractured along lines of wealth, development and the urban/rural divide. But many analysts believe the proposed dissolution of Parliament in the second half of September followed by a general election on Nov. 14 will see the Red-Shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) bring an end to its protests, which have lasted for more than two months now. <a href="http://worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/5524/thailands-red-shirts-accept-abhisits-reconciliation-roadmap">Read more&#8230;</a></p>
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		<title>BLOG: Thailand&#8217;s political tragedy</title>
		<link>http://thegreglowe.com/archives/352</link>
		<comments>http://thegreglowe.com/archives/352#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Apr 2010 05:05:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>greg lowe</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Greg's Blog]]></category>

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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thegreglowe.com/?p=352</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Last night the atmosphere on Silom Road was a far cry from the clashes between security forces and red shirt supporters on Viphawadi-Rangsit Road earlier that afternoon, which left one soldier dead and 18 people injured.
There were a few lines of police and soldiers dressed in riot gear, standing next to razor-wire cordons and guarding [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Last night the atmosphere on Silom Road was a far cry from the clashes between security forces and red shirt supporters on Viphawadi-Rangsit Road earlier that afternoon, which left one soldier dead and 18 people injured.</p>
<p>There were a few lines of police and soldiers dressed in riot gear, standing next to razor-wire cordons and guarding places such as the entrances to the BTS skytrain. Soldiers were holding shotguns or M16, but the magazines were not loaded. There was no sign of tension, no tinder box waiting to explode, and most of the security forces looked bored if anything. <span id="more-352"></span></p>
<p>Squads of police were resting, lying next to their shields or sitting up against the shuttered shop windows. Most were talking with each other or chatting on their mobile phones, some were tuned into live radio broadcasts of speeches being given by United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship leaders on stage at the rally at Ratchaprasong intersection just across the road.</p>
<p>It was a stark contrast to the scenes last week when hundreds of local residents, workers and &#8220;multi-coloured shirt&#8221; pro-government protesters would gather each night until last Thursday&#8217;s grenade attacks by unknown forces killed one and injured more than 75, effectively sounding the deathknell of the anti-red-shirt counter-rallies. </p>
<p>Only a handful of locals and pro-government supporters, probably less than 10, had gathered outside of Au Bon Pain, but while the numbers were low their sense of frustration with the day&#8217;s events and the seemingly endless political deadlock was palpable.</p>
<p>&#8220;We&#8217;ve had enough, all of us around Silom have been affected by the protests. We can&#8217;t make a living,&#8221; said Apichart Prakankul, 38, a local street vendor.</p>
<p>&#8220;People can exercise their democratic rights, but this [the red-shirt occupation] isn&#8217;t democracy. When will it end? If the red shirts can do this, what stops another mob from turning up next time they don&#8217;t agree with something?&#8221;</p>
<p>Apichart said he was angered by the red-shirts lack of consideration for the rest of Bangkok and normal people trying to go abut their everyday lives. He said he was not a supporter of the yellow-shirted People&#8217;s Alliance for Democracy, but he was generally  sympathetic with Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva&#8217;s predicament up to a point &#8212; he should not back down to the UDD, that would only encourage other groups, including the PAD in the future; the Ratchaprasong rally needed to be ended, but without bloodshed; and that something had to be done soon.</p>
<p>He also said both the soldiers and police had a tough, unenviable job, and Apichart was not willing to offer blanket criticisms of the security forces for not following orders. &#8220;I don&#8217;t know if that is true,&#8221; he said, &#8220;it&#8217;s a very difficult situation.&#8221;</p>
<p>&#8220;But if they are refusing or not acting on orders then they are not doing their job, they are deserting the country&#8230; they&#8217;re not being true Thais,&#8221; he added.    </p>
<p>It was a sobering, and frankly quite depressing moment, but one that offered insight into the plight of everyday Thais whose lives and livelihoods are being affected by the anti-government rallies. </p>
<p>Across the road, through the bamboo-and-rubber-tyre barricades, and past the piles of broken-up paving slabs, and the scene could not be more different. </p>
<p>Testament to Thailand&#8217;s unique and often baffling culture, the scene was one more akin to a temple fair than a hardcore political rally aimed at forcing the government to step down.</p>
<p>People were camped out under awnings, while vendors sold fried chicken and doughnuts next to morbid posters showing close ups of the corpses of protesters who had been shot dead in the April 10 clashes between the army and the red shirts near Phan Fa Bridge, which killed 25 and injured more than 800.</p>
<p>Along Rajadamri Road and throughout the rally site, which sprawls over much of central Bangkok&#8217;s key retail district, small crowds of people gathered next to TVs the constantly ran and re-ran news and video footage of the bloody April 10 crackdown. </p>
<p>There was something quite unsettling about this, but it was an example of the UDD&#8217;s highly professional propaganda machine. The continuous speeches from the stage, projected on myriad screens throughout the area, named people who had donated a few hundred baht to the anti-government struggle, or in this case thanking a Thai journalist called Pavin and the BBC and Business Digest for their positive coverage of the red shirts which was drawing more support for the cause.</p>
<p>In most cases, the anti-government supporters I spoke too were very friendly. A small crowd gathered when I was interviewing a couple of people, people smiled and someone energetically flapped their fan at me offering momentary surges of cool to counter the humidity.     </p>
<p>One Bangkokian told me she supported the red shirts because the Abhisit administration was &#8220;unjust, he [the PM] was not elected by the people. Prapassara said she was sure the UDD would win, even though &#8220;Abhisit may be too stubborn to dissolve parliament soon.&#8221;</p>
<p>She also hoped for ousted-premier Thaksin Shinawatra&#8217;s return. &#8220;He was the best prime minister we have had, he had the best ideas,&#8221; she said.</p>
<p>Another protester, Anucha Jeabjan, 44, a protester, said he witnessed the fighting between red-shirt protesters and the army on Vibhawadee-Rangist Road yesterday afternoon.</p>
<p>&#8220;We just wanted to make way to talad Thai (Thai market). We wanted to show Bangkok we are fighting for democracy,&#8221; he said. &#8220;But the soldiers blocked us, then they shot at us.&#8221;</p>
<p>A nearby red-shirt guard, who declined to be named, said the protesters had been unarmed. &#8220;We only had our fists,&#8221; he said, adding that armed plain-clothed soldiers had infiltrated the demonstrators. &#8220;They shot the soldier dead, not us&#8221; he said, but admitted that he had not seen the shooting himself.</p>
<p>Despite the claims of some commentators that the current struggle had gone well beyond support for Thaksin, I did not see any evidence of that. Everyone I spoke too held the former telecoms tycoon in the highest regard. That does not mean that there are not people who join the red-shirt rallies who detest Thaksin, but equally detest the military&#8217;s September 2006 coup, I just did not come across any last night. </p>
<p>Despite the afternoon&#8217;s clashes many protesters said they did not believe the army would lead a bloody crackdown to dislodge the rally from the Ratchaprasong area, saying that the soldiers have &#8220;red hearts&#8221; and supported the anti-government demonstrations.</p>
<p>Others said they were simply not worried by the threat of further clashes. </p>
<p>&#8220;Let them come,&#8221; said Wichai Ornor, 54, who travels 20km everyday to join the rally.</p>
<p>&#8220;I&#8217;m not scared of anything. I used to be in the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Gaur">khratin daeng [red gaurs]</a>,&#8221; he said with a laugh.</p>
<p>The <em>khratin daeng</em> were one of a number of anti-leftist militias formed in the 1970s to fight to the communist insurgency and were involved in the 1976 <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/6_October_1976_Massacre">massacre of Thammassat University students</a>.</p>
<p>At this point I would like to make a few observations about the current situation in Bangkok. These are my own perspectives and opinions and may be totally wrong, but I believe they are at least worth airing.</p>
<p>First, my experience of virtually every person at a red shirt rally has been entirely positive. They are genuinely nice people, and when you talk to them it is hard not to feel for their situation and their desire to have the government they vote for stay in power without interference from the army or judicial activism.</p>
<p>It is disingenuous to deny that most people in the rural provinces have been politically, economically and socially excluded from the benefits of Thailand&#8217;s wealth and development for years. The old establishment, Bangkok elite, call it what you will, through its arrogance, snobbery and refusal to fund development, education and healthcare paved the way for a politician such as Thaksin to come along and tap into a massive political powerbase with the aid of a few populist parlour tricks.</p>
<p>Many Thaksin supporters I have spoken too agree that he was corrupt, but they quite fairly say all Thai politicians are crooked and as Thaksin is the only one to have championed their cause, why shouldn&#8217;t they support them. Some say the reason there was an establishment backlash against him was not because he was corrupt, but because his corruption benefited the social group.</p>
<p>Listening to these passionately held beliefs supported by life stories of hardship and poverty in the midst of the energy of a mass rally can be intoxicating. But this is why it is essential to step back and ask a few questions.</p>
<p>If this is a movement about social justice and class struggle, which has moved beyond Thaksin, why are the demonstrations being held now? Why was it only after the February 26 Supreme Court ruling to seize 46.6 billion baht of the Shinawatra family&#8217;s frozen assets that the UDD started to organise the &#8220;occupation of Bangkok&#8221;?</p>
<p>If the red shirts represent an organic, self-sustaining movement for social and democratic justice, would the rallies continue if the money supply, presumed to come from Thaksin (which is paying for the infrastructure, stages, lighting, catering, television crews etc) was cut off tomorrow, or would they rapidly run out of steam?</p>
<p>What I see as a tragedy of the current situation is that people who support the red shirts &#8212; provincial electorates and those who oppose military and extra-constitutional interference in the democratic system &#8212; have been co-opted by Thaksin who is only concerned about wealth and political power. He is one of the richest Thais, a renegade <em>amat</em>, a member of the elite, and he is hijacking what could be a progressive movement for social change. Some academics and analysts believe that the red shirts/UDD will eventually break away from Thaksin and become a dynamic force in Thailand&#8217;s development, but say this will take several years. </p>
<p>The second key issue is talk of democracy. Democracy is a system based on rights which are enshrined in law. But how can democracy &#8212; in the Western, liberal sense of the word &#8212; function in a society where the Deputy Prime Minister says &#8220;what is the point of imposing martial law when no one will abide by it?&#8221;</p>
<p>If the lower House is dissolved now and the Peua Thai win the election,  anti-Thaksin forces will take to the streets again and the chances of yet another military putsch will loom large on the horizon. Conversely, it is hard to believe that the UDD and Thaksin will say &#8220;fair enough&#8221; and just give up if somehow the Democrat&#8217;s or another anti-Thaksin coalition gain power. </p>
<p>It is also worth asking if the UDD is such a powerful force for democratic change, one which is attempting to invoke the spirit of the &#8216;76 uprising, then why is there such a nasty collection of groups involved in the movement &#8212; <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khattiya_Sawasdipol">anti-communist specialist Seh Daeng</a>; <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panlop_Pinmanee">Panlop Pinmanee </a>, a former death squad leader who was involved in the Khru Sae massacre, who in 2006 said “as a real friend and former classmate from military school, I fully support Chamlong (Srimuang) in his move (to oust Thaksin)”; and a collection of Red Gaurs and Black Rangers to boot. It is odd that these groups are now standing alongside former cadres of the Communist Party of Thailand, the very same people they used to shoot in the head for 200 baht a pop.</p>
<p>The fact that the PAD has effectively got away with its mass protests, occupations of Government House and airports blockades, which cost the economy in excess of 250 billion baht, does expose horrendous &#8220;double standards&#8221; in Thai society, but this should not equate to allowing the UDD to hold the country to ransom.</p>
<p>Thailand&#8217;s cycle of political tragedy needs to be broken and at this point it is hard to see how another general election can do that. Forcing analysis into simple to explain, but essentially ineffective pigeonholes of left vs right, rich vs poor, or Bangkok vs the provinces is a folly and intellectually dishonest.</p>
<p>Without building consensus or constructing even the most basic principles on which all parties involved in the current impasse can agree on, it is hard to see how the deep social and political divides in Thai society can be overcome.</p>
<p>What exactly that process should be is hard to define &#8212; perhaps drafting a new, fully inclusive constitution could be a way forward &#8212; but trying to outline a forward-looking strategy for ending the turmoil will probably provide a bigger chink of light at the end of the tunnel than the current Groundhog Day of elections and mass protests that dominate Thai politics.</p>
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		<title>Thailand protests: Soldier killed as troops fire warning shots at red-shirts</title>
		<link>http://thegreglowe.com/archives/349</link>
		<comments>http://thegreglowe.com/archives/349#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Apr 2010 17:33:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>greg lowe</dc:creator>
		
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		<description><![CDATA[Foreign Office says protests in Bangkok and beyond mean Britons should avoid all but essential visits to Thailand

Greg Lowe in Bangkok and Mark Tran

ONE THAI SOLDIER has died in clashes north of Bangkok between troops and red-shirted anti-government protesters agitating for the dissolution of parliament.
A Reuters photographer said the soldier was shot through his helmet [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Foreign Office says protests in Bangkok and beyond mean Britons should avoid all but essential visits to Thailand</strong><br />
<em><br />
Greg Lowe in Bangkok and Mark Tran<br />
</em></p>
<p>ONE THAI SOLDIER has died in clashes north of Bangkok between troops and red-shirted anti-government protesters agitating for the dissolution of parliament.</p>
<p>A Reuters photographer said the soldier was shot through his helmet as troops and riot police tried to stop a convoy of up to 2,000 red-shirts on pickup trucks and motorcycles who had left central Bangkok in to stage protests outside the capital. <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/apr/28/thailand-travel-warning-britons">Read more&#8230;</a></p>
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		<title>Thailand Remains Tense Despite State of Emergency</title>
		<link>http://thegreglowe.com/archives/347</link>
		<comments>http://thegreglowe.com/archives/347#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 09 Apr 2010 13:27:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>greg lowe</dc:creator>
		
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		<description><![CDATA[The state of emergency declared in Bangkok late on Wednesday night has done little if anything to calm Thailand&#8217;s escalating political tensions.
The Emergency Decree issued by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva gives security forces extended powers to clear thousands of anti-government demonstrators from the heart of Bangkok&#8217;s luxury retail district. The protesters had been camped out [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The state of emergency declared in Bangkok late on Wednesday night has done little if anything to calm Thailand&#8217;s escalating political tensions.</p>
<p>The Emergency Decree issued by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva gives security forces extended powers to clear thousands of anti-government demonstrators from the heart of Bangkok&#8217;s luxury retail district. The protesters had been camped out there, at a cost of up to $430 million in losses to the country&#8217;s economy. Government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn said the decree was issued to &#8220;return normalcy&#8221; as well as &#8220;safety and security&#8221; to Bangkok. But it has so far failed to accomplish those ends. <a href="http://worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?id=5395">Read more&#8230;</a></p>
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		<title>Businesses want normalcy restored fast in Bangkok</title>
		<link>http://thegreglowe.com/archives/344</link>
		<comments>http://thegreglowe.com/archives/344#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 09 Apr 2010 13:26:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>greg lowe</dc:creator>
		
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		<description><![CDATA[By GREG LOWE
IN BANGKOK
THE Thai government&#8217;s declaration of a state of emergency in Bangkok and surrounding provinces will not significantly affect investor confidence in the country, says Thailand Trade Representative president Kiat Sittheeamorn.
The business community supports the government&#8217;s efforts to clear so-called Red-Shirt anti- government protesters from their rally point at Ratchaprasong intersection in the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>By GREG LOWE<br />
IN BANGKOK</p>
<p>THE Thai government&#8217;s declaration of a state of emergency in Bangkok and surrounding provinces will not significantly affect investor confidence in the country, says Thailand Trade Representative president Kiat Sittheeamorn.</p>
<p>The business community supports the government&#8217;s efforts to clear so-called Red-Shirt anti- government protesters from their rally point at Ratchaprasong intersection in the heart of Bangkok&#8217;s retail district, he said.<span id="more-344"></span></p>
<p>&#8216;The private sector knows that we have exercised extreme restraint,&#8217; said Mr Kiat. &#8216;Since the demonstrators moved to Ratchaprasong intersection one week ago, we have tried to negotiate and not use force or risk bloodshed or damage to the area. The private sector appreciates that - but they now want us to move quickly to restore normalcy to the area.&#8217;</p>
<p>The supporters of fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a military putsch in September 2006, have camped out at the intersection since last Saturday to reinforce their calls for the government to dissolve the Lower House of Parliament within 15 days to make way for fresh elections.</p>
<p>The area is home to several luxury shopping centres and hotels. Local businesses have chalked up losses totalling 10-14 billion baht (S$430-600 million), or 30-38 million baht a month, according to Thailand Trade Representative figures.</p>
<p>An emergency decree issued by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva on Wednesday night grants police and the military greater powers to control the protests, which include closing down media that disseminates &#8216;untruthful information intended to intensify the situation&#8217;, as well as allowing security forces greater freedom to use force, said government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn.</p>
<p>The government is focusing on closing the Red Shirts&#8217; media machine. It is also providing free transport to demonstrators who want to return home to the provinces, said Mr Panitan.</p>
<p>The emergency decree is aimed at returning &#8216;normalcy&#8217; to Bangkok for the sake of the &#8217;safety and security&#8217; of the local population, he said, declining to discuss plans for the arrest of the leaders of the Red-Shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD).</p>
<p>While the protests have largely been peaceful, Red Shirts clashed with police and stormed the Parliament compound on Wednesday. And more than 40 bomb and grenade attacks have taken place across the capital in the past month.</p>
<p>Mr Abhisit yesterday pulled out of the 16th Asean Summit in Vietnam.</p>
<p>Speaking from the summit in Hanoi, Singapore Foreign Minister George Yeo said the situation in the Thai capital is &#8216;worrying&#8217; and that he has discussed the matter with his Thai counterpart Kasit Pirmoya on the sidelines of the Asean meeting.</p>
<p>&#8216;I fully understand why Mr Abhisit is not able to come, because he has just declared a state of emergency,&#8217; Mr Yeo said. &#8216;This situation affects all Thai people. All the leaders understand his decision fully, not because Thailand makes light of Asean, but first of all our responsibility has to be to our own people. The safety and well-being of the Thais are at stake here.&#8217;</p>
<p>The Stock Exchange of Thailand plunged 30 points yesterday to close at 783.93, after hitting a low of 780.6, in trade worth 40.2 billion baht.</p>
<p>Analysts say a quick resolution to the security situation is essential to restore confidence to the market.</p>
<p>&#8216;The emergency decree is a more palatable name for martial law, which is meant to be used when a nation is under imminent military/security threat,&#8217; said a Phatra Securities report published yesterday.</p>
<p>Published April 9, 2010<br />
© The Business Times</p>
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